Modeling the effect of temperature and relative humidity on exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in a mechanically ventilated room.

Computational fluid dynamics models have been developed to predict airborne exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus from a coughing person in a mechanically ventilated room. The models were run with three typical indoor air temperatures and relative humidities (RH). Quantile regression was used to indicate whether these have a statistically significant effect on the airborne exposure. Results suggest that evaporation is an important effect. Evaporation leads to respiratory particles, particularly those with initial diameters between 20 and 100 µm, remaining airborne for longer, traveling extended distances and carrying more viruses than expected from their final diameter. In a mechanically ventilated room, with all of the associated complex air movement and turbulence, increasing the RH may result in reduced airborne exposure. However, this effect may be so small that other factors, such as a small change in proximity to the infected person, could rapidly counter the effect. The effect of temperature on the exposure was more complex, with both positive and negative correlations. Therefore, within the range of conditions studied here, there is no clear guidance on how the temperature should be controlled to reduce exposure. The results highlight the importance of ventilation, face coverings and maintaining social distancing for reducing exposure.

Source terms for benchmarking models of SARS-CoV-2 transmission via aerosols and droplets.

There is ongoing and rapid advancement in approaches to modelling the fate of exhaled particles in different environments relevant to disease transmission. It is important that models are verified by comparison with each other using a common set of input parameters to ensure that model differences can be interpreted in terms of model physics rather than unspecified differences in model input parameters. In this paper, we define parameters necessary for such benchmarking of models of airborne particles exhaled by humans and transported in the environment during breathing and speaking.

Gatekeeper training for vendors to reduce pesticide self-poisoning in rural South Asia: a study protocol for a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Pesticide self-poisoning kills an estimated 110 000-168 000 people worldwide annually. Data from South Asia indicate that in 15%-20% of attempted suicides and 30%-50% of completed suicides involving pesticides these are purchased shortly beforehand for this purpose. Individuals who are intoxicated with alcohol and/or non-farmers represent 72% of such customers. We have developed a 'gatekeeper' training programme for vendors to enable them to identify individuals at high risk of self-poisoning (gatekeeper function) and prevent such individuals from accessing pesticides (means restriction). The primary aim of the study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the gatekeeper intervention in preventing pesticide self-poisoning in Sri Lanka. Other aims are to identify method substitution and to assess the cost and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial of a gatekeeper intervention is being conducted in rural Sri Lanka with a population of approximately 2.7 million. The gatekeeper intervention is being introduced into 70 administrative divisions in random order at each of 30 steps over a 40-month period. The primary outcome is the number of pesticide self-poisoning cases identified from surveillance of hospitals and police stations. Secondary outcomes include: number of self-poisoning cases using pesticides purchased within the previous 24 hours, total number of all forms of self-harm and suicides. Intervention effectiveness will be estimated by comparing outcome measures between the pretraining and post-training periods across the divisions in the study area. The original study protocol has been adapted as necessary in light of the impact of the COVID-19. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Ethical Review Committee of the Faculty of Medicine and Allied Sciences, Rajarata University, Sri Lanka (ERC/2018/30), and the ACCORD Medical Research Ethics Committee, Edinburgh University (18-HV-053) approved the study. Results will be disseminated in scientific peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: SLCTR/2019/006, U1111-1220-8046.

Fostering global data sharing: highlighting the recommendations of the Research Data Alliance COVID-19 working group.

The systemic challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic require cross-disciplinary collaboration in a global and timely fashion. Such collaboration needs open research practices and the sharing of research outputs, such as data and code, thereby facilitating research and research reproducibility and timely collaboration beyond borders. The Research Data Alliance COVID-19 Working Group recently published a set of recommendations and guidelines on data sharing and related best practices for COVID-19 research. These guidelines include recommendations for clinicians, researchers, policy- and decision-makers, funders, publishers, public health experts, disaster preparedness and response experts, infrastructure providers from the perspective of different domains (Clinical Medicine, Omics, Epidemiology, Social Sciences, Community Participation, Indigenous Peoples, Research Software, Legal and Ethical Considerations), and other potential users. These guidelines include recommendations for researchers, policymakers, funders, publishers and infrastructure providers from the perspective of different domains (Clinical Medicine, Omics, Epidemiology, Social Sciences, Community Participation, Indigenous Peoples, Research Software, Legal and Ethical Considerations). Several overarching themes have emerged from this document such as the need to balance the creation of data adherent to FAIR principles (findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable), with the need for quick data release; the use of trustworthy research data repositories; the use of well-annotated data with meaningful metadata; and practices of documenting methods and software. The resulting document marks an unprecedented cross-disciplinary, cross-sectoral, and cross-jurisdictional effort authored by over 160 experts from around the globe. This letter summarises key points of the Recommendations and Guidelines, highlights the relevant findings, shines a spotlight on the process, and suggests how these developments can be leveraged by the wider scientific community.

Modeling and experimental study of dispersion and deposition of respiratory emissions with implications for disease transmission.

The ability to model the dispersion of pathogens in exhaled breath is important for characterizing transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and other respiratory pathogens. A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of droplet and aerosol emission during exhalations has been developed and for the first time compared directly with experimental data for the dispersion of respiratory and oral bacteria from ten subjects coughing, speaking, and singing in a small unventilated room. The modeled exhalations consist of a warm, humid, gaseous carrier flow and droplets represented by a discrete Lagrangian particle phase which incorporates saliva composition. The simulations and experiments both showed greater deposition of bacteria within 1 m of the subject, and the potential for a substantial number of bacteria to remain airborne, with no clear difference in airborne concentration of small bioaerosols (<10 µm diameter) between 1 and 2 m. The agreement between the model and the experimental data for bacterial deposition directly in front of the subjects was encouraging given the uncertainties in model input parameters and the inherent variability within and between subjects. The ability to predict airborne microbial dispersion and deposition gives confidence in the ability to model the consequences of an exhalation and hence the airborne transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2.

Modeling the factors that influence exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on a subway train carriage.

We propose the Transmission of Virus in Carriages (TVC) model, a computational model which simulates the potential exposure to SARS-CoV-2 for passengers traveling in a subway rail system train. This model considers exposure through three different routes: fomites via contact with contaminated surfaces; close-range exposure, which accounts for aerosol and droplet transmission within 2 m of the infectious source; and airborne exposure via small aerosols which does not rely on being within 2 m distance from the infectious source. Simulations are based on typical subway parameters and the aim of the study is to consider the relative effect of environmental and behavioral factors including prevalence of the virus in the population, number of people traveling, ventilation rate, and mask wearing as well as the effect of model assumptions such as emission rates. Results simulate generally low exposures in most of the scenarios considered, especially under low virus prevalence. Social distancing through reduced loading and high mask-wearing adherence is predicted to have a noticeable effect on reducing exposure through all routes. The highest predicted doses happen through close-range exposure, while the fomite route cannot be neglected; exposure through both routes relies on infrequent events involving relatively few individuals. Simulated exposure through the airborne route is more homogeneous across passengers, but is generally lower due to the typically short duration of the trips, mask wearing, and the high ventilation rate within the carriage. The infection risk resulting from exposure is challenging to estimate as it will be influenced by factors such as virus variant and vaccination rates.

Expert elicitation on the relative importance of possible SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and the effectiveness of mitigations.

OBJECTIVES: To help people make decisions about the most effective mitigation measures against SARS-CoV-2 transmission in different scenarios, the likelihoods of transmission by different routes need to be quantified to some degree (however uncertain). These likelihoods need to be communicated in an appropriate way to illustrate the relative importance of different routes in different scenarios, the likely effectiveness of different mitigation measures along those routes, and the level of uncertainty in those estimates. In this study, a pragmatic expert elicitation was undertaken to supply the underlying quantitative values to produce such a communication tool. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-seven individual experts from five countries and many scientific disciplines provided estimates. OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimates of transmission parameters, assessments of the quality of the evidence, references to relevant literature, rationales for their estimates and sources of uncertainty. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The participants' responses showed that there is still considerable disagreement among experts about the relative importance of different transmission pathways and the effectiveness of different mitigation measures due to a lack of empirical evidence. Despite these disagreements, when pooled, the majority views on each parameter formed an internally consistent set of estimates (for example, that transmission was more likely indoors than outdoors, and at closer range), which formed the basis of a visualisation to help individuals and organisations understand the factors that influence transmission and the potential benefits of different mitigation measures.

International transfers of personal data for health research following Schrems II: a problem in need of a solution.

On 16 July 2020, the Court of Justice of the European Union issued their decision in the Schrems II case concerning Facebook's transfers of personal data from the EU to the US. The decision may have significant effects on the legitimate transfer of personal data for health research purposes from the EU. This article aims: (i) to outline the consequences of the Schrems II decision for the sharing of personal data for health research between the EU and third countries, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic; and, (ii) to consider certain options available to address the consequences of the decision and to facilitate international data exchange for health research moving forward.